Louisiana St.

Conference:	SEC
Expected RPI:	86.0
Current RPI:	86
Expected SOS:	106
Current SOS:	106
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-2
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	59
Expected OOC SOS:	234

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	86.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	77-63	W	100%
11-13	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	73-48	W	100%
11-20	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	102-95	W	100%
11-24	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	75-50	W	100%
11-29	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	H	72-67	W	100%
12-11	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	80-67	W	100%
12-14	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	89-70	L	0%
12-18	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	60-66	W	100%
12-22	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	84-80	L	0%
12-28	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	75-58	W	100%
1-5	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	79-63	W	100%
1-9	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	68-63	L	0%
1-12	Florida (7.0)	SEC	H	52-74	L	0%
1-16	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	H	73-82	L	0%
1-19	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	A	67-58	L	0%
1-23	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	H	58-54	W	100%
1-26	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	A	75-70	L	0%
1-30	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	H	73-70	W	100%
2-2	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	68-69	W	100%
2-6	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	H	57-56	W	100%
2-9	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	A	60-57	L	0%
2-14	South Carolina (222.0)	SEC	A	46-64	W	100%
2-16	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	H	80-68	W	100%
2-19	Tennessee (59.0)	SEC	A	82-72	L	0%
2-23	Alabama (60.0)	SEC	H	97-94	W	100%
2-27	Arkansas (89.0)	SEC	H	65-60	W	100%
3-2	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	89-76	L	0%
3-6	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	57-68	W	100%
3-9	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	H	67-81	L	0%
3-14	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	N	63-68	W	100%
3-15	Florida (7.0)	SEC	N	80-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana St.	SEC	26.14	26.14	60.00	60.00	5.23	5.23
Florida	SEC	3.97	3.97	77.42	77.42	2.18	2.18
Mississippi St.	SEC	3.95	3.95	33.33	33.33	-1.32	-1.32
Texas A&M	SEC	3.93	3.93	58.06	58.06	0.63	0.63
Alabama	SEC	3.90	3.90	63.33	63.33	1.04	1.04
South Carolina	SEC	3.90	3.90	43.33	43.33	-0.52	-0.52
Georgia	SEC	3.90	3.90	46.67	46.67	-0.26	-0.26
Missouri	SEC	3.89	3.89	70.97	70.97	1.63	1.63
Mississippi	SEC	2.46	2.46	75.76	75.76	1.27	1.27
Tennessee	SEC	2.36	2.36	61.29	61.29	0.53	0.53
Arkansas	SEC	2.34	2.34	61.29	61.29	0.53	0.53
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.31	2.31	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	2.28	2.28	25.81	25.81	-1.10	-1.10
Kentucky	SEC	2.28	2.28	64.52	64.52	0.66	0.66
Marquette	BE	1.76	1.76	73.33	73.33	0.82	0.82
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.74	1.74	73.08	73.08	0.81	0.81
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.70	1.70	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.69	1.69	32.14	32.14	-0.60	-0.60
UC Irvine	BW	1.67	1.67	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Seton Hall	BE	1.66	1.66	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.66	1.66	40.74	40.74	-0.31	-0.31
Boise St.	MWC	1.64	1.64	64.29	64.29	0.47	0.47
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.64	1.64	18.52	18.52	-1.03	-1.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.61	1.61	38.71	38.71	-0.36	-0.36
Chattanooga	SC	1.61	1.61	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	30.00	30.00	-0.09	-0.09
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.20	0.20	85.19	85.19	0.14	0.14
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.18	0.18	28.12	28.12	-0.08	-0.08
Hawaii	BW	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.14	-0.14
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
New Orleans	ind	0.16	0.16	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Pacific	BW	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.15	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.11	0.11	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Elon	SC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.10	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	-0.08
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00